- Predict, protect, prepare Objectives: To understand the need to predict, protect and prepare
- How can scientists predict?
- Putting laser beams across a fault to detect any small movement
- Monitoring release of any radon gas
- Monitoring water levels
- Using seismometers – instruments that measure the movement of the ground
- Graphing magnitude of earthquakes in specific places from the past
- Watching for strange animal behaviour
- Reducing the Effects of an Earthquake
- There are a number of strategies that can be used to reduce the impact of earthquakes. They all involve being fully prepared for the impact. 1. Install adequate warning systems. Warnings of the onset of earthquakes can be detected by organisations and governments. This involves the use of special sensing equipment. However, this alone will not be of much use without effective communication systems in place. Warning systems should be linked to government agencies, rescue and emergency services, and of course to the public.
- 2. Have a unified plan of action Time is of the essence in the case of major disasters. Delay in support/action can result in further deaths. Local, national and international support services should know exactly what to do, and how they work together to produce a rapid, efficient and effective support system. 3. Provide information before the earthquake strikes This can involve the use of radio, TV and newspapers. Everyone should know (i) What precautions they need to take for the own safety and for the safety of others. (ii) How to secure their home and belongings against damage (iii) What to do during an earthquake.
- 4. Provide rapid and efficient support services after an earthquake Apart from medical assistance, people need food, water and accommodation. Moreover, they need these things fast ! Delays in bringing rescue services to the affected areas of population can result in people dying when they have been trapped in buildings. Manual movement of large amounts of rubble can prove virtually impossible to achieve in a few hours, for large areas of destruction. Therefore, heavy duty machinery is needed to reduce the time taken for rescues to be achieved .
- Earthquake-Proof Buildings?
- It is unlikely, given the tremendous forces that exist in an earthquake, that a building could ever be made earthquake-proof. However, there are a number of ways that existing buildings can be made more resistant to earthquake damage.
- New buildings can be designed to have a number of structural features which are more likely to provide resistance to the damaging effects of earthquakes. Structural damage could still occur, but the safety of the people inside the buildings is greatly enhanced by these special features.
- Many of the injuries sustained by people are as a result of falling debris from buildings, including broken glass. Special attention to these potential hazards is an priority in the design of earthquake-resistant buildings.
- (i) Base isolation This works by essentially separating the building from the moving ground during an earthquake. The base will move with the ground, but the movement to the rest of the building is minimised by the provision of special features such as Teflon pads, enormous rollers, coiled springs (ii) Diagonal bracing Shearing forces as distinct to push and pull forces, can cause tremendous damage to buildings. Diagonal bracing helps to minimise the effect of these shearing forces during an earthquake. (iii) Passive damping. Passive damping involves using a range of techniques. The main objective is to absorb the energy without allowing it to impact on the main structure of the building. Certain methods use materials which will deform easily, and therefore absorb the energy, without breaking. Other techniques include the use of large masses which are made to move out of phase with the movement caused by the earthquake. This tends to cancel out the disturbance, just like a trough of a wave in water meeting a crest of a wave will result in calm water (destructive interference in waves) ...
- Your turn…
- 1.Why do many people continue to live in cities which are at risk from earthquakes?
- 2.Why have scientists and engineers concentrated on earthquake prediction rather than prediction?
- 3.Describe the ways that people can prepare for a major earthquake
Earthquake Prediction - Presentation Transcript"
Earthquake Prediction: "Earthquake Prediction - Presentation Transcript"
Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment | Decoded Science
Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment | Decoded Science: 
Earthquake monitoring continues at Parkfield: Image by Scott Haefner, courtesy USGS.
Accurate earthquake prediction, which could save many thousands of lives and minimize earthquake damage, has so far eluded seismologists. One attempt at predicting an earthquake took place during the latter part of the twentieth century in the town of Parkfield in California. Based upon a known series of earthquakes, the experiment attempted to predict a ‘window’ during which the next tremor of significant size would occur.
The Parkfield Earthquake Sequence
Parkfield lies on the San Andreas Fault in California. The fault is part of an active transform fault zone which marks the boundary between the North American tectonic plate, which is moving roughly south-westwards at a rate of around 23mm each year, and the Pacific plate, which is moving approximately north-eastwards at around 79mm each year (This Dynamic Planet map). The relative motions of these plates generates regular earthquakes, many of significant size.
The earthquake history of Parkfield is well-documented but the sequence of relevance to the experiment is best summarized in the article which originally proposed the prediction model. Looking at earthquake events where the mainshock (the largest tremor) was M6.0 or greater, WH Bakun and AG Lindh described a sequence of seismic events.
Establishing the true nature of the sequence of earthquakes in Parkfield, especially in its early part, is problematic due to unsophisticated methods of measuring and recording historic earthquakes. Bakun and Lindh looked at shocks which occurred in 1857, 1881 1901, 1922, 1934 and 1966 and which had magnitudes varying between approximately 5.0 and 6.4. These events were shown to have a mean interval of just under 22 years and their occurrence was described as ‘remarkably uniform’.
Parkfield and the Seismic Gap Theory
The seismic gap theory is, in essence, based upon the idea that strain generated by earth movement accumulates along a given section of a fault at a steady rate and that, once a certain threshold is reached the strain will be released and an earthquake will occur. The strain will then re-accumulate until the threshold is exceeded again and another tremor takes place (Yufang Rong et al).
On this basis, the risk of an earthquake is lowest immediately after an event and increases with time. In theory (and many assumptions have to be made about the rate of strain accumulation, among other things), such a pattern would be expected to produce sequences of earthquakes along a fault segment which are broadly the same in magnitude and in other characteristics and which occur with a relatively even frequency – as at Parkfield.
The Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment
The Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment was the outcome of much work on the seismological data. It was Bakun and Lindh’s 1985 paper which, on the basis that the last so-called characteristic Parkfield earthquake had occurred in 1966, predicted that the next one would occur some time before 1993. The US government became involved and extensive research and monitoring was undertaken (USGS).
But despite the close attentions of a small army of seismologists, the earthquake of around M6.0 did not occur within the predicted timescale. It was not until 2004, over ten years after the latest forecast date and almost 40 years after the previous event, that Parkfield was again shaken by a significant earthquake of M6.0.
There was much debate among scientists as to whether this did in fact constitute the expected characteristic earthquake or whether its occurrence was mere coincidence. In some aspects the earthquake did behave as expected but in others it did not. Overall it has to be concluded that the Parkfield experiment was a failure – and, as one of its initiators (among others) was to conclude, it demonstrated that demonstrates that ‘reliable short-term earthquake prediction still is not achievable’ (Bakun et al, 2005).
Although the Parkfield experiment failed in its intention of accurately predicting the date and place of a significant earthquake, it was nevertheless not without its benefits. The 2004 earthquake was probably the most intensively monitored up to that date and, in the words of the USGS, ‘our understanding of the earthquake process has already been advanced through research results from Parkfield’. The Parkfield section of the San Andreas Fault continues to be the location for earthquake monitoring and study.
Sources
WH Bakun and AG Lindh. “The Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Experiment.”Science. (1985)
WH Bakun et al. “Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake.” Nature. (2005)
Y Rong, DD Jackson and YY Kagan. “Seismic Gaps and Earthquakes.” Journal of Geophysics Research. (2003)
US Department of the Interior and US Geological Survey. This Dynamic Planet map, 1994
US Geological Survey. “California-Nevada fault map for Parkfield” on the USGS website, accessed 23 May 2011.
US Geological Survey. “The Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Experiment” on the USGS website, accessed 23 May 2011.
A Demonstration Earthquake Prediction Program
A Demonstration Earthquake Prediction Program:
SUMMARY
Prepared by E.D.G. Latest Update: June 4, 2000
E-mail: edgrsprj@ix.netcom.com Return to E.D.G. homepage
The demonstration earthquake prediction program being outlined in this report could be thought of as an Internet based version of a vast earthquake forecasting program which I understand has been running in the People's Republic of China for decades.
THE THEORY BEHIND THIS PROPOSED
EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION PROGRAM
It is believed that earthquakes an result from a number of different geologic processes. An example of one of those processes would be a situation where two of the earth's crustal plates which share a common boarder are moving in different directions. And instead of slipping past one another the rock layers in their shared boarder remain locked together. Over time energy is stored in those rock layers as the pressure for them to slip past one another increases. Eventually that accumulated energy becomes so great that the rock layers fracture. And the sudden release of the stored energy results in an earthquake.
Some researchers including myself believe that there are a sizeable number of warning signs or earthquake precursors which signal that energy is being stored in rock layers in earthquake fault zones and that an earthquake may be about to occur. We also believe that if we could collect enough information regarding those earthquake precursors we could then forecast when and where at least some earthquakes were going to occur.
The proposed earthquake prediction program being discussed here would use the Internet to collect earthquake precursor data submitted through the use of Web site data entry screens, by e-mail and by other means, by individuals, scientific groups, and government agencies around the world. The data would be evaluated and stored in files at some Web site and displayed on expandable, interactive world maps which people could examine at that site. When an earthquake occurred researchers would examine the data files and attempt to determine which earthquake precursors served as accurate and reliable indicators that an earthquake was going to occur.
EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION DEMONSTRATION PROGRAM MAPS
The following GIF format maps demonstrate how earthquake precursor data could be displayed on expandable, interactive maps in connection with such an earthquake prediction program. These maps propose what we might have seen just before the January 17, 1994 earthquake in Northridge, California, USA had this earthquake prediction program been in existence at that time.
IMPORTANT NOTE: The data points being used in these maps were made up by me. These are not real data points. As far as I am aware there was little if any earthquake precursor information collected before the January, 1994 Northridge earthquake. Additionally, the maps themselves are rough, handmade drawings which are not intended to be accurate representations of how the earth's continents actually look or where California area earthquake fault lines are located. Large land masses such as the Arctic, and Antarctica have even been left off the maps to make them easier for me to work with.
In an actual operating program people would:
- Look first at Map # 1 which is a World Map.
- Use their computer mouse and computer keys to expand or reduce different areas of the map in size in order to focus in on individual continents etc.
- Choose different map formats in order to look at certain types of data such as ground water level changes or reports of lost pets etc.
MAP # 1 - This map presents a hypothetical picture of where above average numbers of earthquake precursor observations were being made and reported around the world on the day before the Northridge earthquake. There would probably be more than one Hot Spot for earthquake precursor activity at any given time. A number of those hot spots can be seen on this map as yellow colored areas. The orange or red hexagon on the left side of the map shows thatintense earthquake precursor activity was being observed somewhere along the West Coast of the United States at that time. (Remember, these are made-up data points.)
MAP # 2 - Clicking the computer mouse in the area of California, USA in Map #1 would present the viewer with Map # 2 which shows the entire state of California. This hypothetical data map is sufficiently detailed to show individual fault lines. Map # 2 also shows that there were above average numbers of earthquake precursor observations being made in the state around January 16, 1994 in both the Los Angeles and San Francisco areas.
MAP # 3A - Clicking the computer mouse in the Los Angeles area of Map # 2 would cause Map # 3A to be displayed. This hypothetical data map shows areas of above average earthquake precursor activity in the vicinity of Los Angeles, fault lines in that area, and the names "Los Angeles" and "Northridge." An orange or red colored area just north of Los Angeles shows that there was intense earthquake precursor activity being reported in the vicinity of Northridge around January 16, 1994. (Remember, these are made-up data points.)
MAP # 3B - This is not shown with the present maps, but in the actual operating earthquake prediction program, on the top, bottom, and sides of each map there would be commands which could be activated for different purposes. For example, if you wished to see where individual earthquake precursor observations were being made you could click on one of those commands and hypothetical data Map # 3B would be displayed.
Each letter on Map # 3B represents a particular type of earthquake precursor such as seismic fluctuations, ground water level changes, or reports of lost pets etc. Larger letters with no numbers indicate observations which are less than a week old. Older observations are shown as smaller letters with a 1 or a 4 to the right side of them (example: N 4). Smaller letters with a 1 mean the observation is 1 to 4 weeks old. Smaller letters with a 4 mean the observation is 4 weeks to 12 weeks old.
MAP FORMATS
A variety of different data formats would be available for display with the maps.
For several examples:
- A single type of earthquake precursor such as low frequency radio wave fluctuations could be displayed.
- Data going back several years could be displayed.
- The actual data points could be displayed or ones which were adjusted downward in number to take into account the normal background count of earthquake precursor observations which are made on an average day.
A program could be developed which would involve using the Internet to collect and display earthquake precursor data submitted to it by people around the world. I believe that such a program might enable us to detect at least some approaching earthquakes.
Relatively small programs like that could be run by individuals on commercial Internet servers. However a program similar to the one outlined in this present report would be collecting and displaying so much information that it would probably have to be developed and run by a large scientific group or government agency.
MAP CREDITS
The outline for the state of California in Map #2 was traced from a map which was FTP downloaded from a University of Texas Internet map collection site which can be found at: ftp://www.lib.utexas.edu/pub/Map_collection
Outlines for some of the other maps and details such as fault lines were roughly traced from maps which were FTP downloaded from a U.S. Geological Survey Internet map collection site which can be found at: ftp://quake.wr.usgs.gov/pub/www/QUAKES/CURRENT
Both groups were contacted by me regarding my using their maps. University of Texas personnel responded to my request and did not express any objection. U.S. Geological Survey personnel have told me that their maps were produced by the U.S. Government and are not copyright protected. It is my understanding that this means that they are free for anyone to use.
Neither group has any connection with the demonstration earthquake prediction program which has been discussed in this report. - E.D.G.
The first version of this report was stored at my former Prairienet Web site on
October 8, 1996. The statements in this report represent expressions of personal
opinion. Comments regarding this report are welcome. Please send them to:
E.D.G. at: edgrsprj@ix.netcom.com The address -URL- for this page is:
http://home.netcom.com/~edgrsprj/124.html Return to E.D.G. homepage
Citizens Of Rome Flee Because Of Earthquake Prediction Of Someone Who Died 30 Years Ago
Citizens Of Rome Flee Because Of Earthquake Prediction Of Someone Who Died 30 Years Ago
In response to predictions from a self-taught astronomist who died more than 30 years ago, many Roman citizens are sitting May 11 out, and waiting for another of his earthquake predictions to come true.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/romans-take-today-off-and-wait-for-an-earthquake-2011-5#ixzz1RgIY6QDJ
 Image: wikipedia commons |
Raffaele Bendandi gained renown in the 1920s and 1930s when his theory that the movement of the planets sparked earthquakes, caught the attention of Benito Mussolini. Over the years, he was credited with predicting a number of disasters, and his reputation grew.
With the L'Aquila earthquake of two years ago still fresh on Italian minds, Benandi's supposed prediction of a May 11, 2011 Roman earthquake have taken hold of the Eternal City.
According to the BBC, almost 20 percent of city employees have taken the day off, and Italy's civil protection agency has released statements reminding citizens that earthquakes cannot be predicted. There are other reports of people fleeing the city.
Today's state run Italian TV is running programs aimed at "calming nerves" throughout the city.
There is no clear evidence the prediction is anything more than blog-born, internet hype, however, and the custodian's of Bendandi's papers have issued statements saying there is no mention of May 11 in them.
Please follow Business Insider on Twitter and Facebook.
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Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/romans-take-today-off-and-wait-for-an-earthquake-2011-5#ixzz1RgIY6QDJ
THINK OUT OF THE BOX- Earthquakes can be predicted
"THINK OUT OF THE BOX- Earthquakes can be predicted"
I am an engineer working in municipal corporation of Mumbai. I have been working on earthquake prediction from the past 15 years.The accuracy of date prediction for major quakes (>6.5) is fairly high(>80%). I would like to help people save their lives by predicting major quakes and eruptions. I believe that "The tectonic plates are due to earthquakes and that the earthquakes are not due to tectonic plates.". You will find here the theory of quakes and future prediction with updates on the topic.
THEORY OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION
( A) First things first-at the outset, please forget the idea that, as this knowledge is based on Astrology and hence it must be wrong, or baseless. The theory is based on pure science, specifically,.physics and on the effect of Gravitational pull acting on two bodies .It requires a calculation of pull, mass1*mass2/ square of the distance between two objects.
It is also not correct that the theory is only based soley on tidal forces. It also takes in to account the changes in Momentum, mass(v2-v1) of the molten magma due to either a change in direction of the major planets, or extreme speed of the planets. This occurs when planets change their direction,as we perceive it from Direct to Retro gate or from Retrogate to Direct.. Extreme speed of the planets also plays an important role in accelerating or retarding the momentum of a planets normal speed and extreme speed and days of extreme speed which are mentioned below.
Normal Extreme Days
Mars 31-26 46-11 15
mercury 59-08 131-32 10
Jupiter 5-0 14-04 45
Venus 59-08 75-42 1 0
Saturn 2-0 07-45 180
How to predict major earthquake
(a) First-We need to find the month and date when major planets such as Jupiter and Saturn change their directions, or gain excessive speed. Venus and Mercury are also important in considering for quakes of less intensity (<6.5)
(b) Second- Find the dates 15 days before and after (a) above, when the moon acts as trigger by either joining ,opposing, or squaring the planets that are changing direction or the planet having excessive speed.
Also find the dates for full moon, new moon , low neap tide moon dates and the times immediately before and after (a) above.as the moon is the main trigger the dates and times (+/- 2Hrs ) are fixed by the moon.. this is because moon takes 2 Hrs to move one degree
THESE ARE THE TIMES WHEN MAJOR QUAKES /ERUPTIONS /NATURAL DISASTERS are most likely to occur.
(C) Third- Location-The place depends on two things
Determining the place accurately is very difficult, as it depends on time accuracy. If we miss 4 minutes, we are inaccurate by one degree of longitude. The line along the resultant vector pull of all forces and the crust right above the pull at that time ,will decide the place or region where the the quake will occur. .It is true that quakes occurs along fault the line ,but that is only because those are weaker sections. of the Earth crust,which is like a skin.If the Earth crust is solid the quake may be delayed for some time (2 to 4 Hrs ) till the weakness comes right below a fault line. Or it may occur little earlier depending on availability of weaker crust
THE PLATES AND FAULTS ARE DUE TO QUAKES AND QUAKES ARE NOT DUE TO PLATES. Plates and faults are effects of quakes and not cause of the quake
HOW DID THE FIRST EVER QUAKE OCCURRED OR HOW WERE THE PLATES SEPARATED BEFORE QUAKES EVER OCCURRED? For example ,On some given date (say,16th September 2008) there are lot of quakes all over the globe and on various plates that are not related to each other. How do we explain this with Plate tectonics?
(d) Magnitude- The magnitude depends on several things which are
#One or more planets changing direction(for momentum change)
# Full moon ,New moon , low neap tide moon (for tidal force calculation)
#Planets having extreme speed ( for momentum change)
#Moon is at perigee ( for tidal force calculation )
# Earth is nearest to Sun ( for tidal force calculation )
# Moon on equator ( for tidal force calculation )
# Moon and Sun are at extreme declination ( for momentum change )
#Aspects of other planets ( for tidal force calculation )
# Eclipse( occurs when sun and moon are in the same plane) ( for tidal force calculation)
(D) Earthquake cycle- Once the date and time of a major quake is forecast ,we need to observe the dates before and after the selected dates, to estimate dates for pre shocks and after-shocks. These will occur before and after 7- and- half days, 15 days , 23rd day and one Lunar month. This is because the moon takes yet another potent position after each 7-and-half days (90 Degrees movement). Please note these pre and after shock may not be at the same place.
That is why we must add few more dates to our forecast .(and well in advance )
We also need to track and monitor the date from the event at least one month in advance and adjust the dates according to pre-shock signals.
(i) cyclone theory and Volcanic Eruption theory The tidal forces with change in momentum also applies to atmosphere and moisture in the air. The high tide line creates high pressure and low tide line creates low pressure zone in the atmosphere. The more the tidal force ,the more the low pressure zone. This pressure difference creates high speed winds. If it happen to be ocean with 26-27 degree temp band, over which the winds blows it may create a cyclone.
If he tidal force of molten magma is more, it can open up a dormant volcano.
Thus dates given here are prone for natural disasters
(iii) 100 % prediction- Why do we need 100 % prediction at initial stage? Why do we need either 0% or 100 % prediction ? Why we can not progress smoothly?
Forget earthquake prediction. Do we have cent percent weather forecast? Can we predict cloud burst with accuracy ,despite having Doppler Radar? Can we predict land fall of cyclones ,despite having satellite images with 72 hours lead time ? Why only sciences have liberty to learn from error? or self correction? Are we hypocrites? Are we working blind folded in the name of science? Do we have keyhole view of the problem? Are we not ready to think out of the box?
Amit dave
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Accuracy of previous earthquake prediction - Year 2009
please see my blog
http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/ dated 10th June 2010
During year 2009 total 30 prediction of 6+ quakes were made
Out of which there are only 5 misses.
rest of all 6+ quakes have occurred on date (+ or - one day )
Amit
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Declinations and major /frequent quakes
hi
I am aware that ,by opening this blog and proposing this hypothesis ,I may be opening a big debate. I may not be able to prove it right now ,but this is a simple hypothesis based on observations
Earth moves with 23 and half degree NE declined. Moons maximum declination is 24 degrees North or South. Hence,23+24 =47 degrees North maximum declination. Similarly 23-24 =-1 degrees.Major quakes generally occurs during maximum or zero declination of Moon.This is because from maximum declinations Moon changes the declination and hence momentum change in molten magma.
The maximum and major earthquakes occur at 37 to 57 degrees North as well as south(47+ or -10 degrees)(As tidal pull applies diagonally it replicate at south also). Regarding -1 position ,the major and frequent quakes occur at 9 degrees North to 11 degrees South(-1 + or -10 degrees)
These are just observations and no stats or mathematical calculations are done yet.
I believe,,this is the reason why we have potent and frequent quakes at these places
open for criticism
Regards
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