What Earthquake?

By Lila Renrik
 What earthquake, here in the middle of Christchurch, not likely". "If you paid attention during your geography classes young man, you would know that I have told you all many times, Christchurch is built on a swamp and therefore the likelihood of an earthquake having much effect on us in this city is very small."
I will save both my junior and my High School geography teacher's blushes by leaving out their names, but ever since I was a young child and I'm now quite a bit older having had a few birthdays ending in 0, successive teaches have preached the same thing to me and no doubt scores of other Cantabrians, regarding the relative safe haven, insulated from earthquakes we in Canterbury live in.
So you can imagine my surprise when on September 4 2010, at 4.35am on a pitch black, deftly still late winter morning, a 7.1 magnitude earthquake shook my house off its foundations, shattered windows and rearranged our landscape. Within the 45 seconds or so, when our world shook its socks off, our house became unlivable, our section became a terraced back yard with two trenches a meter wide and in places two meters deep and all services were cut. The next hour was spent wading through water, mud and sand ensuring our neighbour's and my children, who live in three separate parts of town, were all ok. Remarkably, only a few people in all of Canterbury were injured, thank god.
In the cold and darkness of the aftermath, we sat in the remains of our house, waiting for daybreak, waiting for the aftershocks and whatever daylight would lie before us. Ironically, as we sat in the torchlight of our bedroom, sitting out the dark, the first thing that came to mind was, "those buggers were full of Shiite!"
Mind you, in their defence I have since learnt that the last time this fault line was active was 16,000 years ago, and the ability to detect such historic evidence had most likely, only recently become available. Although all of my past teaches seem to be ancient themselves at the time, it is highly unlikely any were present then, although one grey haired old codger must have been born about then. Also, again to spare their blushes, I have just found out that the mud and sand that rose from deep below our gardens and roads, bursting through the surface wherever it pleased, like a pimple erupting through your skin, is in fact called "Liquefaction", go figure? That is one word I have never, ever heard before and certainly was never part of my collective geography teacher's vocabulary.
All this goes to show is that time, like people move on and no matter what we are told today, about today, or tomorrow, is just conjecture, based on some historic data and so-called educated guessing.
I, like my decrepit old teachers, will tell my grandchildren what I know, and what I believe, straight from the heart with no malice or intent to deceive, yet, time may indeed prove to my own grandchildren, that even their wise old, good-looking, fit and friendly old grandparent, may also be full of Shiite? I wonder.

Lila Renrik is a Wealth Creator. She enjoys a relaxed and fun lifestyle working from home on her computer or from anywhere that has an internet connection. She has been asked to assess many opportunities, giving her insight to many that are flawed by their need for technical know-how or that are fly-by-nighters with ridiculous income claims, only achievable by a few. Lila wants to save others the regret of pursuing 'go-no-where' or 'too difficult' schemes, by sharing what has worked for her. Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Lila_Renrik

Earthquake Insurance in California

By Elizabeth Potts Weinstein

As the water began to drain from New Orleans in 2005, we learned that most of the homeowners in New Orleans did not have flood insurance, since they were supposedly in "low risk" areas. The over 60% of homeowners will need to depend upon their own savings, and limited federal assistance, to rebuild New Orleans - at an uncalculated cost for homeowners and taxpayers.
Could that level of disaster, especially that level of uninsured disaster, happen in California? Less than 15% of California homeowners currently carry earthquake insurance, due to its high cost, the "can't happen to me or my house" factor, and mortgage providers not requiring coverage. The next big quake will result in billions of uninsured damage - but is earthquake insurance really worth the high cost?
How Did We Get Here?
The state of California requires that all homeowner's insurance providers to at least offer earthquake insurance (albeit, at a high cost). Until 1994, it was widely available - but the high damage costs of the Northridge earthquake resulted in 97% of homeowner's insurance providers pulling out of the state the California. In response, the California Earthquake Authority was formed by the California legislator to provide earthquake insurance.
What Is the California Earthquake Authority, and How Does It Work?
The California Earthquake Authority provides two-thirds of the earthquake policies in California, sold through their member providers, like Allstate and State Farm. A homeowner purchases the policy through their regular insurance agent, but the policy is actually a CEA policy.
The CEA currently has about $7.2 billion to pay claims, which it states is enough to pay foreseeable damages (Loma Prieta in 1989 had $6 billion in total damages). If the damage claims are more than $7.2 billion, then each claim would be paid a prorated portion of their losses - unlike a regular insurance company, which promises to pay the actual damages under the insurance policy. The state of California cannot help pay the claims out of general funds.
The policies also have a high deductible - usually 15% of the value of the dwelling. In other words, your home must be damaged more than 15% of its value before the insurance starts paying. So, this insurance is not for cracks in the driveway - it is for significant structural damage to your home. The policy also pays for limited contents (starting at $5K) and loss of use (starting at $1500).
Why Is Earthquake Insurance So Expensive?
Insurance policy premiums are calculated based on probabilities - the probability that a house like yours in a neighborhood like yours will catch fire, or a driver like you will have an accident. With data from millions of homes, these probabilities can be calculated with reasonable accuracy. But, no one can reliably predict the probability that there will be an earthquake strong enough to damage your home.
And, as you can imagine, damages from an earthquake, flood, or hurricane, are widespread, over potentially thousands of square miles - instead of one or a few dozen homes, as in a fire. As such, the insurer would have to pay either zero claims, or billions of dollars of claims - too much variance to reasonably plan for or price accurately.
Are We Really At Risk Here in San Jose?
According to the USGS, there is a 62% probability that there will be an earthquake of 6.7 or greater (like the Northridge quake) in the Bay Area in the next 30 years. In my zip code (San Jose 95126), USGS calculates a 80% chance of a 6.0 earthquake and a 20% chance of a 7.0, in the next 30 years. Whether you consider that to be a high risk depends on your risk tolerance for earthquakes - I consider that a high risk of a moderate earthquake and a somewhat low risk of a terrible earthquake, over the next 30 years.
But like any issue involving real estate - it is all local. Where your home is actually located significantly affects your risk - bedrock, reclaimed land from the bay, soil type, nearby streams, actual distance from the epicenter - all can affect potential damage.
But of course, many earthquakes occur where the USGS was not even aware of a fault line - and we never know when or where it will happen, until it happens.
Should I Obtain Earthquake Insurance?
Factors to Consider:

• Could you afford to pay for the rebuilding your home from your own savings & investments?
• Can you afford to pay the high cost of insurance, indefinitely?
• Could make payments on your current mortgage and on a new loan to rebuild?
• Can you mitigate your potential losses by bolting your roof to the walls and the walls to the foundation, for example?
• What is your tolerance for the risk of an earthquake?
• What is the risks of your current home construction (type, age, foundation)?
• What are the risks of your specific location (soil type, distance to known faults)?

Are the Costs Worth It?Let's assume that you have a home that would cost $250K to rebuild, you will own the home for the next 30 years, and your earthquake premiums are $1200 per year. Over the next 30 years, that would be a total of $36,000 in premiums (assuming your premiums do not increase, to simplify calculations).
Instead of purchasing insurance, you invest the premiums in a diversified mutual fund. With an 8% annual return, you would have $135,000 (pre-tax) in year 30.* But of course, you only have that total in year 30, not in year one - meaning that if the earthquake happens tomorrow, you don't have the money.
The deductible is another big turn off for many homeowners. The insurance pays only for large structural damage, not broken dishes or cracked driveways - meaning that it is less likely you will use it. However, be aware that you will not need to come up with the cash for the deductible - you may either opt to not undertake those repair or rebuilding costs, or you can apply for an SBA loan to pay for the deductible (assuming a federal disaster area is declared).
Why Not Just Get Federal Aid, or "Walk Away" and Let the Bank Have the Property?
The federal government would probably provide access to SBA loans, if the area is declared a federal disaster area (no small business required). However, the $200K maximum SBA loan may not be enough to rebuild your home - and, it is a loan that you need to pay back (in addition to your current mortgage).
If you have refinanced your mortgage, you have a recourse mortgage - which means that not only can the bank foreclose on the property in case of non-payment, the bank can also come after your personal assets and future income in case of non-payment. So you cannot just walk away, especially if you have a good income and some personal assets. The bank may help out by deferring payments for a few months, but you still must pay back the loan.
Last Thoughts
We have earthquake insurance on our home. Our home was not yet built in the 1906 earthquake (so who knows if it would stand), it is 75+ years old and is not bolted to the foundation, and we have a refinanced mortgage. For my family, the insurance premiums are worth peace of mind in case of a major earthquake disaster. That's exactly what insurance is for - the "you never know."
*calculations ignore inflation

Elizabeth Potts Weinstein, JD, a licensed attorney and Registered Investment Advisor, is the founder of Potts Weinstein Financial Consulting, a financial and estate planning firm, headquartered in San Jose, California. The firm specializes in providing fee-only, hourly financial planning, estate planning, and investment advice for people from all walks of life and income brackets. For more information about Potts Weinstein Financial Consulting, or to subscribe to our monthly eZine 'Prosper!', please visit http://www.pottsweinstein.com Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Elizabeth_Potts_Weinstein

California Earthquake - Psychic Prediction

By Barbara Garcia

Most of us who live in Southern California are aware that a major earthquake is bound to occur within the next 10 years. We look toward the scientist to inform and prepare us for those dreaded earth quake strikes.
I would rather not talk about the "big one" that has been expected to occur for decades because these sort of predictions tend to ignite deeper fears in our already fearful position in these earthquake ridden regions. We have heard and read about the big quake that is bound to happen so much that we have become desensitized.
There are dozens of meanings one can perceive from a psychic vision. This is why they need to be considered hypothetical in nature, worthy of study and reference but not taken as verifiable. However, psychic visions of an apocalyptic earthquake in southern California are being forecasted by reputable psychics much too often to ignore and remind people of the very real seismic dangers in the region.
Although I predicted a sizeable earthquake this year in my 2009 Psychic Predictions, the big one is about a year or two away. I keep seeing the year 2011 like a pulsating animation within visions of major earth shifts in my home state of California. Dates perceived in months or years could be argued to have limited value in forecasting a time because we psychics move our consciousness in large spans of time and cover broad areas of locations and events. On the other hand, the numbers 2011 is a significant part of the psychic vision.
Earthquake ridden fault zones are located throughout California but the areas in my vision are moving in the southern regions of California, from the outskirts of San Diego, the deserts, off shore Long Beach, Los Angeles, San Bernardino and Riverside Counties. The magnitude does not seem as significant as the amount of confusion in the collapse and destruction of buildings, structures, moving vehicles and machinery.
Earthquake preparedness may be mundane topic every year but how many of us are prepared? Contact the national CDC for information on how to survive in earthquakes and disasters, the more you educate yourself, the better prepared you become and you just might save the life of someone else as well.

Author of 7 Oracles Prophecy and Empowerment ISBM 0-9798296-07 and Psychic Empowerment ISBM 0-9798296-1-5. Home page: http://www.Starmerge.Com offers a wide range of services, art gallery and book store that are designed to educate and enhance the quality of your life.

Alaska Earthquake and Tsunami, 1964

By Garry Gamber

The 1964 Anchorage, Alaska, earthquake and the resulting tsunami struck without warning on Good Friday, March 27.
It was a quiet spring day in Anchorage, a holiday. Temperatures were seasonably mild with a moderate amount of snow on the ground. Children had the day off from school, and customer traffic in the stores downtown was light. Many residents were preparing or enjoying dinner at home. At 5:36 p.m. a major earthquake began to shake the ground, and the earth beneath Southcentral Alaska moved in waves for the next four long minutes.
Parents and children slipped, stumbled and fell on shifting floors in a panicked effort to get outdoors to escape breaking windows. Two inch cracks appeared in the ground in many places. Roads wrinkled and split and Fourth Avenue in downtown Anchorage broke apart and collapsed 10 feet or more. The Government Hill Elementary School twisted, shifted and became unusable in a moment. The outside wall of the J.C. Penney building crashed to the street. In the Turnagain residential district the ground liquefied like quicksand, slid away, and swallowed up 75 or more homes.
The four minute earthquake released the energy roughly equivalent to 10 million times the force of an atomic bomb. The mass of the earth and ocean absorbed most of the force, but manmade structures in the area could not absorb the rest of the force without suffering massive damage. Total property damage was estimated at $500 million.
Anchorage was crippled as gas lines and water lines were severed abruptly. Residents resorted to melting snow for water while awaiting repairs. Four days later students returned to available schools as life in Anchorage began to recover.
The Earthquake
The center of the Alaska earthquake was located about 75 miles east of Anchorage and about 55 miles west of Valdez. It began 14 to 16 miles deep in the earth's crust, a comparatively shallow depth, where the Pacific plate dives beneath the North American plate. The huge subduction zone is located at the north end of the Ring of Fire, a semicircle of volcanic and earthquake activity that defines the rim of the Pacific Ocean.
The earthquake fault, more precisely the thrust fault, which was the cause of the Good Friday earthquake stretched 750 miles from Alaska's Aleutian Islands to Valdez. The Pacific plate that day moved an estimated 25 to 30 feet northward, diving beneath the North American plate. The grinding of the two massive tectonic plates caused the Alaska earthquake and measured 8.4 on the Richter scale. In later years the measurement of the Alaska earthquake was upgraded to 9.2 on the Mw, or moment magnitude, scale as the Richter scale was determined to be inaccurate at measuring very large earthquakes above 8.0. Within a day of the initial major earthquake 11 more tremors of 6.0 or greater shook an already nervous population. In fact, aftershocks continued for nearly a year.
The earthquake caused the ground to displace upward by as much as 25 feet on several Alaskan islands and by nearly 3 feet upward at the city of Valdez. In other areas the ground displaced downward as much as 9 feet, for example in the town of Portage.
The Alaska earthquake on Good Friday was the strongest earthquake ever recorded in North America. It was the second strongest ever recorded worldwide, surpassed in strength by the 9.5 Mw earthquake in Chile on May 22, 1960. The recent December 26, 2004, earthquake off the coast of the Indonesian island of Sumatra measured 9.0 Mw. The deadliest earthquake occurred in Shensi Province, China, in 1556 where over 830,000 residents perished.
The Tsunami
Tsunami is an adapted Japanese word meaning "port wave," a reference to the fact that the wave's danger and destructive power only become evident as it approaches the shore.
During the 1964 Alaska earthquake the North American plate released upward, displacing a huge volume of ocean water and causing a seismic wave, a tsunami, to travel outward. The wave traveled at an estimated 450 miles per hour in the deeper ocean in a long wave of almost imperceptible height.
As the tsunami wave passed over the continental shelf and approached shore its length shortened, its speed decreased and its height increased as the massive volume and weight of water prepared to release its incredible energy on anything in its path.
At the shallow Valdez Inlet the wave reached a maximum height of nearly 200 feet. Further on, at the old town of Valdez, a 30 foot wall of water struck and demolished all structures. Twenty eight Valdez residents died when the tsunami crashed ashore. Valdez was later rebuilt at a higher elevation and further from the waterfront.
In Seward, Alaska, the earthquake caused a portion of the bay to slide. The slide caused a local tsunami which devastated Seward's port and downtown district, both of which were eventually rebuilt. Twelve residents perished in Seward.
The small town of Portage was leveled by its own local tsunami and never relocated or rebuilt. Another local tsunami struck the small port of Whittier killing 12 residents.
The Destruction
The original tsunami traveled about 8400 miles. It caused damage in the Hawaiian Islands and along the Oregon and California coasts. A 20 foot wave struck Crescent City, California, and killed 10 residents. The tsunami was responsible for the deaths of 16 people in Oregon and California.
The tsunami killed a total of 122 people in three states. By comparison, the earthquake resulted in 9 deaths.
It has been more than 40 years since the Alaska earthquake and tsunami. In the meantime construction materials and building practices have been enforced to produce structures more capable of surviving strong earthquakes. Also in the meantime, the population in Alaska's vulnerable areas has increased tremendously.
Smaller earthquakes along Alaska's subduction zone and other fault zones occur on a daily basis, presumably relieving the internal pressures that would otherwise produce another massive earthquake.
However, nobody knows with certainty when, where, or whether another huge and destructive earthquake will strike Alaska.

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Garry Gamber is a public school teacher and entrepreneur. He writes articles about real estate, health and nutrition, and internet dating services. He is the owner of http://www.Anchorage-Homes.com and http://www.TheDatingAdvisor.com.

Earthquake Risks in California

By Mostafa EL-Engebawy, Ph.D.

California Earthquakes
California earthquakes are developed by movement of huge blocks of the earth's crust; the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate. The Pacific Plate is moving northwest, scraping horizontally past the North American Plate at a rate of about 2 inches per year. About two-thirds of this movement occurs on the San Andreas fault and some other parallel faults. Over time, these faults produce about half of the significant earthquakes of the region, as well as many minor earthquakes.
Earthquake Prediction in California
Earthquakes occur suddenly without warning, during any season, and at any time of day or night. Sponsored by the United States Geological Survey (USGS), California Geological Survey (CGS), and Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC); the 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, released the Uniform California Earthquake Forecast (UCERF). It states that California has 99.7% probability of having a moment magnitude Mw = 6.7 earthquake (same as Northridge event) during the next 30 years. The southern segment of San Andreas fault has the highest probability of generating such an earthquake scenario in southern California with a 67% chance of striking the greater Los Angeles area, while Hayward fault is the most likely earthquake source in northern California with a 63% chance of striking the San Francisco bay area. Larger earthquakes are less likely during the same time frame; 94% probability of Mw = 7.0 event, 46% probability of Mw = 7.5 event, and 4.5% probability of Mw = 8.0 event. For all magnitudes, the earthquake is more likely to occur in southern California than in northern California.
Hazards Associated with California Earthquakes

1. Liquefaction susceptibility where partially saturated soil deposits may completely lose cohesion during prolonged shaking, behaves like a liquid, and loses their ability to support structures. The highest hazard is in low-lying areas where there are loose, sandy soils or poorly compacted artificial fill. A liquefied sand layer can shoot to the surface through cracks, forming a sand-blow, and depositing sand on the ground. This results in permanent ground deformations such as lateral spreading and settlement, both of which increase the likelihood of damage to buildings and infrastructure. Areas prone to liquefaction include, but not limited to, the southern Coachella valley and the upper Santa Ana river basin in southern California; San Francisco bay area, northwestern Alameda county, and northern Santa Clara valley in northern California as predicted by the USGS.
2. Landslide susceptibility where steep sloping areas underlain by loose or soft rock are most susceptible to earthquake-induced landslides, damaging buildings and other structures. Areas prone to landslides include, but not limited to, eastern San Gabriel mountains.
3. Surface fault rupture where shallow faults can breakthrough the ground surface as they displace against each other during an earthquake causing severe damage to building and infrastructures.
4. Fires where earthquakes in urban areas are often followed by destructive fires because of gas lines break and electrical shorts that may quickly spread due to clogged roads and collapsed bridges that prevent firefighter access, or damaged water tanks that limit water for firefighting. Without fires, the casualty and economic losses would be halved.
5. Tsunamis where major earthquakes occurring in the Pacific Ocean may displace the ocean floor, generating tsunami that could affect the West Coast.

Expected Economic Losses focusing on Northern CaliforniaThere is a 62% probability that at least one earthquake of Mw = 6.7 or greater will occur in the San Francisco bay area before 2032. Hayward fault has the highest probability of 27% of generating such earthquake event, while the northern segment of San Andreas fault has a probability of 21%, the Calaveras fault of 11%, and the San Gregorio fault of 10%. It is well-known that soft soils in San Francisco bay area would amplify and prolong the shaking even at great distances from the ruptured fault. Consequently, a repeat of the 1868 Hayward earthquake is expected to cause significant loss of life and extensive damage to homes, businesses, transportation systems and utilities. Several hundred thousand people are likely to be homeless after the earthquake. Economic losses exceeding $120 billion is expected. These losses include damage to buildings and contents, business interruption, and living expenses, with more than 90% of both residential and commercial losses being uninsured.
Expected Economic Losses Focusing on Southern California
A 2008 comprehensive study, known as the ShakeOut scenario earthquake, by the USGS and CGS of a hypothetical Mw = 7.8 earthquake rupturing the southernmost 200 miles of San Andreas fault has been performed. The fault rupture will produce more than 100 seconds of shaking throughout southern California. The event initiates from the epicenter at the Salton Sea producing very strong shaking along the fault as it ruptures until it ends near Lake Hughes. Soil conditions at sites along the fault will generally tend to amplify earthquake shaking. Deep soils in Los Angeles sedimentary basin would generate persistent shaking as the seismic waves are trapped and reverberate. The intensity of shaking will also be strong in San Bernardino valley, in areas prone to landslides mainly in the eastern San Gabriel Mountains, and in areas susceptible to significant liquefaction mainly in the southern Coachella valley where the two conditions of liquefaction applies; strong shaking and a high ground-water table. However, localized liquefaction is likely to occur in the upper Santa Ana and Santa Clara river basins. In areas of strong shaking and liquefaction, the ground will shift violently back and forth; collapsing thousands of older buildings, shoving houses off foundations, and sending unsecured furniture and objects flying. Such an earthquake event will cause some 1,800 deaths and 53,000 injuries. Fires are very likely to occur. The estimated economic losses total $213 billion due to earthquake shaking and its consequences specifically fires.
Get Ready to ShakeOut
You should participate in the annual Great California ShakeOut Earthquake Drill. You can register at the ShakeOut web site now for the 2010 ShakeOut Drill on October 21 at 10:21 a.m.! It is a great opportunity to learn how to protect yourself and your family during earthquakes, and to get prepared. More than 6.9 million Californians participated in the second annual earthquake drill in 2009. They were reminded to maintain their earthquake preparedness plan by preparing a personal survival kit for each family member and a household emergency kit, and to stockpile emergency food and water for 1-2 weeks to be prepared for the next inevitable earthquake. The magnitude 7.0 Haiti earthquake demonstrates the necessity of earthquake preparedness for anyone living in an active seismic region.
Interesting Fact on Earthquake Insurance in California
Homeowners insurance does not provide coverage for earthquake damage to your home. It is surprising to know that 33% of homes were covered by earthquake insurance in 1996 when the devastating 1994 Northridge earthquake was still fresh in people's minds, but in 2006 just 12% of homes maintained coverage, according to California Department of Insurance. Californians living in older homes should re-reconsider buying earthquake insurance as an effective way to manage potential costs of future inevitable earthquakes, especially after the 2010 Haiti earthquake.
Concluding Remarks
The 2010 Haiti earthquake is a wake up call for Californians to develop, update, or maintain their own earthquake preparedness plans. If you live within 15 miles of an active seismic fault and/or liquefiable area, you should re-consider retrofitting your home and mitigating its contents to protect yourself and your family. The benefits of seismic retrofitting and mitigation go well beyond being simply reducing financial losses. It will make your home safer and help in returning your family much more quickly back to their normal life style. In addition, re-considering earthquake insurance would help in managing potential costs of future earthquakes. Finally, develop an earthquake preparedness plan that includes maintaining emergency food and water for 1-2 weeks along with personal survival kits and a household emergency kit.

Additional information on California earthquakes and related hazards including illustrative figures and photos can be found at http://hubpages.com/hub/Earthquake-Hazards-in-California My family and I survived the January 17th 1995 Kobe Earthquake although our building partially collapsed. Check my website for additional information on earthquake awareness and preparedness in the United States including earthquake damage photos of Kobe earthquake at http://earthquake-preparedness.net Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Mostafa_EL-Engebawy,_Ph.D.