Somalia: A Trap or an Opportunity for China?

Strong Earthquake Rattles Japan; Tsunami Warning Canceled The rise of a new power, and more particularly a superpower, is not a simple event; it never occurs easily and smoothly. Usually, this type of development implies rejection of the previously existing regional or global order. This does not imply necessarily a revolutionary ideology, but it certainly involves a revolutionary attitude.

Contrarily to a revolutionary ideology, which depends on a political – ideological system, a revolutionary attitude hinges either on a new technology that drastically changes the societies (railway, airplane, computers, Internet) or on a new perception of the world’s realities that subsequently changes the relations among the various competing states.

By accepting the existing global order and system of relationships, China will never truly become a superpower. The globally prevailing order of political – economic conditions has been set up over the past 2 – 3 centuries by the colonial powers, and involved the diffusion and imposition of the Anglo-French model of thought, behaviour and society allover the world; this system’s continuation is still being ensured by mainly America.

The prevailing global order involves indirect but incessant agitation of countries considered as rival by England, France and/or America. China experienced precisely this symptom before and during the Beijing Olympics, when protesters and secessionists appeared assertively in Eastern Turkistan and Tibet. By stating this, I merely refer to a development, leaving analyses aside.

Within the present world order, the rise of an economic superpower ‘China’ will simply not occur as long as China does not reciprocate, by systematically developing contacts with ethno-religious minorities and by methodically mobilizing ethnic minorities in England and France against the local pseudo-democratic, elitist, Freemasonic régimes.

The rest of the world is also the arena in which China has to deploy the necessary effort to eliminate Anglo-French colonial roots and impact, and the subsequent American influence. Somalia is a key point for China to differentiate itself from the loathsome colonial rulers, and oppose the machinations that have been undertaken.

A useless alliance of the Chinese squadron with the NATO forces off the Somali coast is expected by all political analysts; but it will not offer any differential advantage to Beijing; worse, China is thus expected to contribute to developments most desired by the colonial powers that will inevitably turn to their benefit, not China’s. Certainly, no one would seriously deal with the piracy networks that are totally controlled by the local Puntland – TFG war lords, and their invisible masters; in addition, this would not be wise for a power that intends to expand influence in the wider area.

On the contrary, a close cooperation between China and the Asmara-based wing of the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) would trigger major developments in Somalia, imposing China as major player in the geo-strategically critical Horn of Africa country. This new African policy of Beijing would not only help China have a solid foot in Somalia but would impact greatly Beijing’s relationship with the Islamic World, which in turn is key to positive developments and pacific settlement of any dispute and discord in Eastern Turkistan / Sin Kiang.

More light on the recently expressed interest of Beijing for the impending naval operations against the Somali pirates is shed in the Ecoterra 87th press release update that I publish herewith integrally.

87th Update 2008-12-23 18:05:22 UTC

Ecoterra Intl. - Stay Calm & Solve it Peaceful & Fast !

Ecoterra International – Update & Media Release on the stand-off concerning the Ukrainian weapons-ship hi-jacked by Somali pirates.

We also can make sea-piracy in Somalia an issue of the past - with empathy and strength and through coastal and marine development as well as protection!

New EA Seafarers Assistance Programme Emergency Helpline: +254-738-497979
East African Seafarers Assistance Programme - Media Officer: +254-733-385868

Day 90 - 2140 hours into the FAINA Crisis - Update Summary

Efforts for a peaceful release continued, but the now three months long stand-off concerning Ukrainian MV FAINA is not yet solved finally, though intensive negotiations have continued.

Frantic efforts on the side of the mediation team characterize the present days, since it has now become clear that only blame-games do not help concerning a tangible solution in such situations in Somalia.

Ecoterra Intl. renewed it's call to solve the FAINA and the SIRIUS STAR cases with first priority and peaceful in order to avert a human and environmental disasters at the Somali coast. Anybody encouraging hot-headed and concerning such difficult situations inexperienced and untrained gunmen to try an attempt of a military solution must be held fully responsible for the surely resulting disaster.

Clearing-house:

News from other abducted ships --

A 15-year-old cancer survivor is appealing to Somali pirates through an open letter to release her father this Christmas. "Please! Please release him for me sir! Maybe you also have a daughter who loves you very much! My father just works so hard far away to help me survive from cancer of acute leukemia. So, please! I beg you--be my Santa Claus, please release my father for me!" said Michelle Arroyo. Michelle has been diagnosed with Biphenotypic Acute Leukemia (ALL/AML) and is scheduled to have her bone marrow abstract test on December 27, 2008 after finishing her intensification cycle.

"I humbly appeal to the Chieftain of those who captured my father, Mr. Roger F. Arroyo, the chief cook of the MV Chemstar Venus last November 16, 2008. Please, let my father come home to us this Christmas. I love and miss my father very much! Let my father be your greatest gift to me this Christmas!" the girl said.

Aside from Michelle’s father 18 other Filipino seafarers were on board the M/V Chemstar Venus hijacked by Somali pirates. Michelle’s mother Christy said to abc-news: "My husband called once last December 5, 2008. He and the other crews were so terrified with the threat of his captors to their lives if their principal will not pay their ransom money at the soonest possible time. According to him, they just eat once a day and are being guarded by armed men day and night", Mrs. Arroyo said. Foreign Affairs Undersecretary for Migrant Workers Affair Esteban Conejos said that all 92 Filipino seafarers are in good condition. Conejos said the DFA is exerting all efforts for the safe and immediate release of all remaining Filipino seafarers who are still in the hands of Somali pirates.

"We are continuing negotiations for the release of the remaining 92", said Conejos and he added that about 117 Pinoy seamen have already been released unharmed from Somalia this year. The government of the Philippines has been doing a two-fold approach in dealing with the piracy issue, he explained: "One, secure the early and safe release of the hostages through negotiations. While negotiating for the release, we also hold sessions with the families. I brief them regularly on the status of negotiations, we provide them with psychosocial interventions because they are emotionally affected by the incident", he said. In the case of the MV CHEMSTAR VENUS, however, the owner-manager IINO MARINE SERVICE CO LTD from Tokyo, Japan seems to leave it all to the insurance- and risk-management companies involved, who drag their feet.

With the latest captures and releases now at least 19 foreign vessels with a total of at least 360 crew members (of which 92 are Filipinos) are held in Somali waters and are monitored on our actual case-list, while several other cases of ships, which were observed off the coast of Somalia and have been reported or had reportedly disappeared without trace or information, are still being followed.

Over 132 incidences (including attempted attacks, averted attacks and successful sea-jackings) have been recorded to far for 2008 with until today 49 fully documented, factual sea-jacking cases (incl. the presently held 19). Mystery mother vessels Athena/Arena and Burum Ocean and not fully documented cases of vessels are not listed in the hi-jack count any more until clarification. Several other vessels with unclear fate (also not in the actual count), who were reported missing over the last ten years in this area, are still kept on our watch-list, though in some cases it is presumed that they sunk due to bad weather or being unfit to sail. In the last four years, 22 missing ships have been traced back with different names, flags and superstructures.

Other related news -----------------

Ethiopia has made a firm decision to withdraw all its 3,000 troops from Somalia before the end of the year. The AU had asked the Ethiopians to stay on, at least until the arrival of AU peacekeeping reinforcements.

The African Union during their meeting in Addis Ababa has agreed to keep its peacekeeping force in Somalia for a further two months. But the AU's peace and security council appeared to make little progress on the problem of replacing Ethiopian troops when they leave at the end of the year. Ethiopia has rejected pleas to phase its withdrawal in co-ordination with the arrival of fresh forces. The AU force already in Mogadishu is too small to resist resurgent Islamist and nationalist fighters. The UN envoy to Somalia, Ahmedou Ould Abdallah, on Monday described the country's problem as a "problem for the whole region". "There is a hidden genocide in Somalia which has sacrificed entire generations", he was quoted by AFP as saying. The real villains in Africa are the political and military leaders who are far more interested in their own welfare than in they are in the needs of their people. The most obnoxious example is certainly Robert Mugabe, the 84-year-old leader of Zimbabwe who has presided over the almost total collapse of his once-thriving country and its economy, closely followed by the former and present potentates from Sudan, D/R Congo, Nigeria, Somalia et. al. - but looking into the always most important question "QUI BONO?" one finds the money trail mostly ending up in the UK, the US, the UAE and elsewhere outside Africa, where the villains masterminds are based.

The international community is shying away from one of the most politically-troubled and dangerous war zones in the Horn of Africa: the perpetually strife-torn Somalia. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon during his end-of-year-speech confessed he has virtually given up all hopes of sending a U.N. peacekeeping force into the country, widely described as a failed state. "The danger of anarchy in Somalia is clear and present. So is the need to act", he told reporters during his year-end press conference. Ban admitted that the situation in Somalia is "very volatile and dangerous, risky for peacekeeping operations to operate there".

Asked to sum up his experiences during his two-year tenure as secretary-general, Ban said: "If I may just reflect personally, I started my job as secretary-general with excitement. It was very exciting for me, personally and officially". Then this excitement and exciting period turned into a sort of a very humbling period, he said. "Having seen so many people whose human rights, whose personal well-being had been not well treated, I felt very much humbled. Then there is always a problem of lack of resources and lack of political will; thus I have not been able to see the progress of all the initiatives and all the measures and all the country issues, which made me very much frustrated and troubled". He said that 2008 was also a year facing multiple crises -- food, energy and finance. "There are so many issues where many stakeholders are to be involved. Then with the global financial crisis, still we are feeling sort of a panicking. Many people have felt panic. These are some things that I feel personally, just a personal reflection", he added.

China warned Somali pirates on Tuesday it was prepared to use force when its navy ships arrive in the Gulf of Aden to combat a wave of piracy that has disrupted international shipping. It is the first time in recent history that China is deploying ships outside the Pacific, sending two destroyers and a supply ship which set sail on Friday, and the navy's deputy chief of staff said they would use force if needed. "When our naval vessels are ambushed by pirate ships, we will resolutely fight back to protect our own safety", Rear Admiral Xiao Xinnian said in a briefing to reporters. "If the act of piracy is already under way and the pirates are already robbing other civilian vessels, we will suppress their acts, provided we have the capability and conditions to do so", Xiao said the Chinese ships would mainly be charged with protecting the nation's commercial vessels as well as the ships of international organisations such as the United Nations World Food Programme. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and the president of the UN Security Council, Neven Jurica of Croatia, Monday both extended their welcome to China's decision to dispatch Chinese naval ships for escorting operations in the Gulf of Aden and Somali waters, saying the Chinese move is a strong support for the global efforts to fight pirates there, a Chinese envoy said here.

But China will also add special forces and helicopters to join the three warships to fight pirates off the coast of Somalia, the senior military official said today. The special troops and two helicopters will accompany the navy vessels to Somalia to protect China's commercial fleet and join the international community's fight against piracy, Rear Admiral Xiao Xinnian, deputy chief of the staff of PLA Navy, told a news conference in Beijing this morning. He said the action underlined China's commitment to its international obligations and "as a responsible major country in the world" and added: "Through this we also demonstrate the resolve and capability of the Chinese navy to deal with multiple security threats and complete diversified military tasks", he added. China said Tuesday it is now even seriously considering building its first aircraft carrier as it prepares to send two warships and a supply vessel to protect Chinese commercial ships in the pirate-infested waters off Somalia. China's move is seen by many analysts as yet another sign for global militarization and has especially Japan worried.

Important insight by Julian Ryall in Tokyo (for the Telegraph/UK) on US/China/Japan relations: Japan has enjoyed a close defence relationship with the administration of President George W. Bush, but even before his successor takes his seat in the White House there is concern that Beijing has already usurped the "special relationship" across the Pacific. "The government, diplomats and the policy makers in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs are very afraid", said Toshimitsu Shigemura, a professor of international relations at Waseda University. "Before, China did not feel able to cooperate in global military operations with the US or other nations, but that has clearly changed and I forsee Beijing increasingly projecting its power overseas in the future", he said. Washington may have tried to reassure the Japanese government that the bilateral relationship remains intact, but those in power have bitter memories of the administration of President Bill Clinton, when the emphasis was on promoting ties with China at the expense of Japan.

By appointing Hilary Clinton as his secretary of state, Tokyo fears that President-elect Barack Obama will be going down the same road. "Japan should be taking a role in the effort to deal with the pirates as well", said Yoichi Shimada, a professor at Fukui Prefectural University. "I believe that a Japanese maritime force should be sent to the region, but this government is a coalition and the minority partner, New Komeito, is strongly opposed to the use of military power", he said. The other factor hampering the use of the Japanese military is the constitution, which limits very specifically the actions the military may take. Special laws had to be drawn up to enable Japanese forces to assist in the conflict in Iraq and even then their roles were strictly defensive and for reconstruction work. Passing similar laws for naval operations off Somalia would take several months to be approved. The United Nations Security Council adopted a resolution last week approving operations against pirates in the western Indian Ocean, with Britain, the US and France amongst the nations to have already committed forces. They will reportedly be joined by two Chinese destroyers and a supply ship, which will cooperate with other nations' forces and share intelligence.

German Defense Minister Franz Josef Jung criticized tour operators that continue to send cruise ships through the Gulf of Aden, accusing them of risking the lives of their passengers by sailing in a region plagued by piracy. "The German government has given a clear travel warning. The area is so dangerous that one mustn't use it for leisure activities. Those who sail there are knowingly putting the lives of their passengers at risk", Jung told Bild newspaper in an interview published on Tuesday. And in an interview German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said that German-owned ships should fly Germany's flag if they want full protection from pirates off Somalia. Germany's tourist federation demanded last week that German cruise ships crossing the Gulf of Aden should each be escorted by a warship. While many seafarers agree with a move to abandon the flag-of-convenience circumventions of i.a. sound labour-laws, many tour-operators feel the minister is exaggerating in order to boost the moral of his troops on this "dangerous mission" against some malnourished Somalis in torn shirts, shorts and flippers.

The German defence minister at least revealed that the costs of the mission are not just the few million in overheads his office had stated earlier and confirmed: "The mission is costing around € 45 million (= 57.5 m US $) after all. And that's taxpayers' money." Most analysts agree that 6 m US $ from the Germans alone spent over the last 10 years on coastal protection and management in Somalia would have averted today’s problems with piracy, not to mention a situation whereby the other participants of the global armada would have chipped in. But the agenda obviously is a different one and that the naval powers have not banded together as an Anti-Somalia-Armada first has to be shown, since until today the forces have not arrested a single illegal fishing-vessel or a single trafficker in arms, drugs or humans in the waters of Somalia.

In a positive move Germany said Monday it would consider taking in foreign detainees from Guantanamo if the United States closes its "war on terror" jail, but only if the rest of the European Union steps up to the plate, the news outlet The Local reports. Deputy government spokesman Thomas Steg said Berlin strongly backed the pledge by US president-elect Barack Obama to shut down the prison at the US naval base in Cuba. "In our view Guantanamo must be closed on legal and humanitarian grounds, in terms of international law and human rights, and for moral reasons", Steg told reporters. He said it was the clear responsibility of the United States to find a place for inmates it did not want to accept and who could not be returned to their home countries. But he said Berlin would seriously consider any US request to accept some of them. "We would need to, and want to, examine this issue when the United States has made clear what its specific plans and timeline are", Steg said. "(But) if we begin to review such closure plans and take a stance, then it can only be in a European context based on a discussion with all member states", he said, adding that Germany would reject any "side deals, swaps or conditions" put forward by Washington linked to handing over prisoners.

In a letter to European Union counterparts this month, Portuguese Foreign Minister Luis Amado said the EU should help the United States close Guantanamo by taking in detainees from third countries. Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier has ordered ministry officials to begin preparing for a possible request to take in former Guantanamo prisoners, his spokesman Jens Ploetner said, adding that German officials met with human rights activists and lawyers for detainees last month. "Efforts to close Guantanamo must not be allowed to fail" because of difficulty finding countries to accept former inmates, Plötner said. The German government's top human rights official, Guenter Nooke, launched a debate here last week when he called for Berlin to take in some of the 17 ethnic Uighur Chinese held at Guantanamo. The Muslim group has been in limbo at Guantanamo - despite being cleared for release by the US government - because officials cannot find a country willing to take them. The men cannot be returned to China because of fears they would be tortured there as political dissidents, US officials say. Steg said there were no German inmates at Guantanamo. Germany in August 2006 took back Turkish national Murat Kurnaz, who had been held at Guantanamo since January 2002 and was born and raised in Germany. After his return, Kurnaz accused Berlin of rejecting a US offer to release him in 2002 despite its vocal opposition to the jail. He has also said he was beaten by German special forces in Afghanistan while he was being held by the US military in late 2001, before his transfer to Guantanamo.

The charges were investigated by German authorities but never officially substantiated. The prison, which currently holds about 250 inmates, was opened in early 2002 at a remote US naval base on the southeastern tip of Cuba as a way of holding detainees beyond the reach of US courts. Defence Secretary Robert Gates, who will be staying on with the new US administration, said last week that an obstacle to quickly closing the site has been getting countries to take prisoners who are no longer considered a threat. Rights groups have called on EU countries to offer asylum to former detainees. And in a parallel move German human rights groups called on their government not to support a new Guantanamo-like detention-centre in Kenya for arrested Somali pirates, which has been already in the make by the US and the UK. Both countries dropped already alleged pirates from the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean off the Somali coasts into Kenya's infamous Shimo-la-Tewa maximum security prison, using against payment the former British colony with its inhuman detention facilities and at least questionable legal processing arenas in order not to stand up themselves to the challenges of the piracy cases. Germany's call for an international court to be set up to prosecute Somali pirates therefore was welcomed by the human rights defenders. "It needs to be an international authority" Jung stated in Djibouti.

Britain harbours state-pirates. Nigeria's anti-graft agency declared on Monday that a former minister, who now lives in Britain, is an official suspect over the embezzlement of hundreds of millions of dollars of public funds. Nasir el-Rufai, the former minister for the federal capital Abuja, is "wanted" for allegedly misappropriating the massive sum of 32 billion naira ($246 million), the agency said in a statement. Nigeria's Senate began to investigate the allocation of plots of land in and around Abuja by former president Olusegun Obasanjo and others close to him, including El-Rufai, back in April. The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) said it had grown tired of waiting for el-Rufai to come foreward and answer its questions. El-Rufai had ignored a November 28 deadline and a second ultimatum three weeks later, it said. On Sunday several Nigerian dailies carried bold declarations by el-Rufai, as AFP reported: "Come and get me. In any case I have no intention of coming back to get my passport confiscated", one newspaper quoted him as saying. The EFCC recently issued a report saying that Nigeria's past leaders siphoned off almost $400 billion of state funds between independence in 1960 and 1999. Transparency International still ranks Nigeria as one of most corrupt countries in the world. With embezzled funds also Somali "leaders", like Abdullahi Yussuf in Kenya and the UK or Mohamed Ghedi in Kenya and the US have prepared their sleep-well homes far away from the mess they created in their homeland.

Dozens of people have died in central Somalia's Galgadud region after an outbreak of acute watery diarrhoea (AWD), medical personnel said on 23 December. The worst-affected area is in and around the town of Balambale. "In a 30-day period, 16 people have been confirmed to have died in the town; 12 were children under five", Mahamud Mohamed Isturaye, the district medical coordinator, said. So far, Isturaye said, 139 cases of AWD had been registered in Balambale, adding: "These are the ones who made it here. We are getting reports of people dying in the outlying villages, but unfortunately we cannot reach them". He said AWD had broken out after heavy rains, which contaminated water in wells and barkads (water cisterns).

A French ship has been sent into the Mediterranean Sea to fix underwater communication cables between Sicily and Tunisia after they underwent damage earlier on Friday. The cables -- which carry more than 75 per cent of all communication traffic between Europe and the Middle East -- are believed to have been broken by a fishing trawler rather unlikely as a result of a seabed earthquake. It is the second time this year that trans-Mediterranean Internet cables have been damaged. In January, the cables were severed by a ship's anchor; web and telephone access was knocked out for millions of people in the Middle East and South Asia. It can, however, also not be ruled out that foul-play is involved.

   By Prof. Dr. Muhammad Shamsaddin Megalommatis
Published: 12/25/2008