A recent article making a California earthquake prediction for 2011 by Simon Winchester of Newsweek has taken the web by storm. Because the article came direct from Newsweek, a respected source, many people have become alarmed. The backlash against the article’s author was almost instantaneous.
On the anniversary of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, a small 3.8 earthquake rattles California. See the newest post here:
The Newsweek article claims that earthquakes follow each other in a discernible pattern. An earthquake on one side of the world can trigger another earthquake on the other side of the world by adding stress to the fault lines along the tectonic plates. It is an interesting theory and does appear to have some recent evidence to back it up:
- On February 27th 2010 there was an 8.8 magnitude earthquake in Chile. At the time, this was the 6th largest earthquake ever recorded on the Richter scale. The resulting tsunami had waves as high as 10 feet reaching parts of the world
- On February 22nd of this year there was a 6.3 magnitude earthquake in New Zealand. This has been called an aftershock by some authorities from the 7.1 magnitude earthquake from September 2010.
- On March 11th there was the apocalyptic 9.0 magnitude earthquake that struck Japan resulting in the tsunami felt halfway across the globe.
The article explains that the Chile quake was in the southeast corner, the New Zealand earthquake was in the southwest corner, and the Japan earthquake was in the northwest corner…
California Earthquake 2011
Therefore, this only leaves the northeast corner of the tectonic plate – along the San Andreas fault – San Fransisco, California.
Now, the author only claims this is a possible – even logical – assertion. He does not go as far as to make the California earthquake prediction… just that it is possible.
He calls the three previous earthquakes in the other three corners of the tectonic plates “triggering events.” And he does seem to say an earthquake in California is not a matter of “If” but “When?”
The 1906 California earthquake and resulting fire is regarded as one of the greatest natural disasters in US history with over 3000 dead. The 1906 earthquake along the San Andreas Fault is estimated anywhere from a 7.7 to an 8.3 in magnitude.
2011 California Earthquake Hoax?
Now, as we all know, if you are going to even HINT at a prediction, you better be ready for the intense backlash. The Newsweek author is a not exactly a scientist and so he is wearing it as far as the scientific community is concerned. Yahoo News reports that a panel of geophysicists were questioned about a possible connection between the four corners of the Pacific Rim and they responded that no such evidence existed. They did not, however, go so far as to promise that no catastrophic California earthquake was possible …or even probable.
The bottom line from the Yahoo News article is that a 1906 type earthquake should only happen once every 200 years and that there is only a 2% chance that any such earthquake will occur there in the near future.
Let’s all hope they are right!
“…mankind inhabits this earth subject to geological consent—which can be withdrawn at any time.” Simon Winchester, Newsweek
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