- Mar 16, 2011
- Sally Anne Lewis
- Another Quake for Christchurch? -Martin Luff
Ken Ring makes predictions about weather and earthquakes, based partially on the phases of the moon. While he has some followers who vocally defend his forecasting ability, he is heavily criticized by government ministers, geologists and meteorologists.
The prediction
Ring has started a loud controversy by predicting a major earthquake in New Zealand within the next week. He bases this theory on a number of natural factors happening in conjunction. The factors are:
- Moon perigee, when the moon is closest to the earth
- Full moon
- King tide
- Undefined solar influences
On a recent live television interview Ring has stated that he predicted the recent Christchurch Earthquake and that another will occur on or around March 20th. The host of the show, John Campbell, stated quite clearly during the interview that he didn’t believe in the predictions, and then issued an apology the following day. Public comments about the live show have included a comparison with the treatment given to Galileo for his statements about the earth revolving around the sun. Some scientists have been quite offended with this comparison.
Read more at Suite101: New Zealand Earthquake Prediction Controversy | Suite101.com http://www.suite101.com/content/new-zealand-earthquake-prediction-controversy-a359657#ixzz1RgGZJ9vD
The skeptics
Geologists understandably have weighed in on the prediction. “Opportunistic and meaningless self-promotion during a time of national crisis” says senior lecturer in geology, Dr. Mark Quigley.
New Zealand government minister, Dr. Nick Smith, has said in an interview that Ring’s predictions are mumbo jumbo, and compared him to someone crying ‘Fire’ in a packed theater. The chief science minister, Sir Peter Gluckman, has dismissed the forecast, saying, "There's no added risk of a quake on March 20 or any other day.”
Ring has a number of books and forecasts for sale on his website and some feel that he is just trying to get publicity. To counter the prediction and to quell fears Dr Smith will join a group of geologists, earthquake engineers and media representatives at a lunch in one of the oldest and tallest buildings in Christchurch. News reports quote two weather forecasts from Ring, one saying that a parade in Auckland, New Zealand would be ruined by rain, and the other saying that Queensland, Australia would have a dry January. The parade took place on a fine warm day and Queensland had historic flooding.
Then there are those who are taking the predictions seriously. A few families have left town for the week and some children are urging their parents to leave. One school has suspended earthquake drills and is downplaying the dangers of an earthquake, trying to ease fears in children, who are already concerned after the February Christchurch earthquake. Many adults, spooked by recent events, are giving some credibility to the 20th March forecast.
Others wish Ken Ring would go back to his normal occupation of predicting the best times to go fishing, using the tides and phases of the moon. Nobody takes his weather forecasts seriously now.
Sally Anne Lewis - Sally has master's degrees in science and journalism, and is fascinated to a degree in most other things. Always something new to ...
