I am an engineer working in municipal corporation of Mumbai. I have been working on earthquake prediction from the past 15 years.The accuracy of date prediction for major quakes (>6.5) is fairly high(>80%). I would like to help people save their lives by predicting major quakes and eruptions. I believe that "The tectonic plates are due to earthquakes and that the earthquakes are not due to tectonic plates.". You will find here the theory of quakes and future prediction with updates on the topic.
THEORY OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION
( A) First things first-at the outset, please forget the idea that, as this knowledge is based on Astrology and hence it must be wrong, or baseless. The theory is based on pure science, specifically,.physics and on the effect of Gravitational pull acting on two bodies .It requires a calculation of pull, mass1*mass2/ square of the distance between two objects.
It is also not correct that the theory is only based soley on tidal forces. It also takes in to account the changes in Momentum, mass(v2-v1) of the molten magma due to either a change in direction of the major planets, or extreme speed of the planets. This occurs when planets change their direction,as we perceive it from Direct to Retro gate or from Retrogate to Direct.. Extreme speed of the planets also plays an important role in accelerating or retarding the momentum of a planets normal speed and extreme speed and days of extreme speed which are mentioned below.
Normal Extreme Days
Mars 31-26 46-11 15
mercury 59-08 131-32 10
Jupiter 5-0 14-04 45
Venus 59-08 75-42 1 0
Saturn 2-0 07-45 180
How to predict major earthquake
(a) First-We need to find the month and date when major planets such as Jupiter and Saturn change their directions, or gain excessive speed. Venus and Mercury are also important in considering for quakes of less intensity (<6.5)
(b) Second- Find the dates 15 days before and after (a) above, when the moon acts as trigger by either joining ,opposing, or squaring the planets that are changing direction or the planet having excessive speed.
Also find the dates for full moon, new moon , low neap tide moon dates and the times immediately before and after (a) above.as the moon is the main trigger the dates and times (+/- 2Hrs ) are fixed by the moon.. this is because moon takes 2 Hrs to move one degree
THESE ARE THE TIMES WHEN MAJOR QUAKES /ERUPTIONS /NATURAL DISASTERS are most likely to occur.
(C) Third- Location-The place depends on two things
Determining the place accurately is very difficult, as it depends on time accuracy. If we miss 4 minutes, we are inaccurate by one degree of longitude. The line along the resultant vector pull of all forces and the crust right above the pull at that time ,will decide the place or region where the the quake will occur. .It is true that quakes occurs along fault the line ,but that is only because those are weaker sections. of the Earth crust,which is like a skin.If the Earth crust is solid the quake may be delayed for some time (2 to 4 Hrs ) till the weakness comes right below a fault line. Or it may occur little earlier depending on availability of weaker crust
THE PLATES AND FAULTS ARE DUE TO QUAKES AND QUAKES ARE NOT DUE TO PLATES. Plates and faults are effects of quakes and not cause of the quake
HOW DID THE FIRST EVER QUAKE OCCURRED OR HOW WERE THE PLATES SEPARATED BEFORE QUAKES EVER OCCURRED? For example ,On some given date (say,16th September 2008) there are lot of quakes all over the globe and on various plates that are not related to each other. How do we explain this with Plate tectonics?
(d) Magnitude- The magnitude depends on several things which are
#One or more planets changing direction(for momentum change)
# Full moon ,New moon , low neap tide moon (for tidal force calculation)
#Planets having extreme speed ( for momentum change)
#Moon is at perigee ( for tidal force calculation )
# Earth is nearest to Sun ( for tidal force calculation )
# Moon on equator ( for tidal force calculation )
# Moon and Sun are at extreme declination ( for momentum change )
#Aspects of other planets ( for tidal force calculation )
# Eclipse( occurs when sun and moon are in the same plane) ( for tidal force calculation)
(D) Earthquake cycle- Once the date and time of a major quake is forecast ,we need to observe the dates before and after the selected dates, to estimate dates for pre shocks and after-shocks. These will occur before and after 7- and- half days, 15 days , 23rd day and one Lunar month. This is because the moon takes yet another potent position after each 7-and-half days (90 Degrees movement). Please note these pre and after shock may not be at the same place.
That is why we must add few more dates to our forecast .(and well in advance )
We also need to track and monitor the date from the event at least one month in advance and adjust the dates according to pre-shock signals.
(i) cyclone theory and Volcanic Eruption theory The tidal forces with change in momentum also applies to atmosphere and moisture in the air. The high tide line creates high pressure and low tide line creates low pressure zone in the atmosphere. The more the tidal force ,the more the low pressure zone. This pressure difference creates high speed winds. If it happen to be ocean with 26-27 degree temp band, over which the winds blows it may create a cyclone.
If he tidal force of molten magma is more, it can open up a dormant volcano.
Thus dates given here are prone for natural disasters
(iii) 100 % prediction- Why do we need 100 % prediction at initial stage? Why do we need either 0% or 100 % prediction ? Why we can not progress smoothly?
Forget earthquake prediction. Do we have cent percent weather forecast? Can we predict cloud burst with accuracy ,despite having Doppler Radar? Can we predict land fall of cyclones ,despite having satellite images with 72 hours lead time ? Why only sciences have liberty to learn from error? or self correction? Are we hypocrites? Are we working blind folded in the name of science? Do we have keyhole view of the problem? Are we not ready to think out of the box?
Amit dave
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Accuracy of previous earthquake prediction - Year 2009
please see my blog
http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/ dated 10th June 2010
During year 2009 total 30 prediction of 6+ quakes were made
Out of which there are only 5 misses.
rest of all 6+ quakes have occurred on date (+ or - one day )
Amit
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Declinations and major /frequent quakes
hi
I am aware that ,by opening this blog and proposing this hypothesis ,I may be opening a big debate. I may not be able to prove it right now ,but this is a simple hypothesis based on observations
Earth moves with 23 and half degree NE declined. Moons maximum declination is 24 degrees North or South. Hence,23+24 =47 degrees North maximum declination. Similarly 23-24 =-1 degrees.Major quakes generally occurs during maximum or zero declination of Moon.This is because from maximum declinations Moon changes the declination and hence momentum change in molten magma.
The maximum and major earthquakes occur at 37 to 57 degrees North as well as south(47+ or -10 degrees)(As tidal pull applies diagonally it replicate at south also). Regarding -1 position ,the major and frequent quakes occur at 9 degrees North to 11 degrees South(-1 + or -10 degrees)
These are just observations and no stats or mathematical calculations are done yet.
I believe,,this is the reason why we have potent and frequent quakes at these places
open for criticism
Regards
